Top all-time · #7345
Bill McBride
Personal blog · calculatedrisk.substack.comeconomicsdata
Bill McBride writes CalculatedRisk Newsletter, a personal blog at calculatedrisk.substack.com about economics and data. Since 2021, 11 different Hacker News readers have linked it 34 times. It is still writing: the last post was on 2026-11-01, and you can follow it by feed.
Too few sampled comments (8) to say how often HN recommends it.?
Why HN links it
HN readers link Bill McBride's Calculated Risk for US housing data and analysis, covering house prices, affordability, mortgage rates, rents, vacancy and inventory. Commenters cite it as a source on these topics.
Summarised by Claude from a sample of 8 HN comments that link here. Each comment is marked recommending, critical or neutral (citing without judging); how this works.
Real Estate Data and Analysis.
Most-linked posts?
- /p/real-house-prices-price-to-rent-ratio-8972 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2021-10-30
What Hacker News says?
From the data I have seen, it does not look exponential. Anyone interested in real estate should check out the CalculatedRisk blog (or substack for only realestate). Guy has been doing this stuff for a very long time. https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/real-house-prices-pric...
Comment linking /p/real-house-prices-price-to-rent-ratio-897
on “U.S. house prices are rising exponentially faster than income”Submitted Mortgage/Treasury Spreads, Part I as a story · 17 points
HN discussionYes, prices are elevated, but nowhere near the point any median price to median income analysis suggests. The flaw in the price to income ratio is the cost of borrowing (interest rates). Most home buyers consider what they can “afford” by comparing their monthly income against their monthly mortgage payment. For this reason, a more accurate way to consider the cost of home ownership is through various affordability…
Comment linking /p/real-house-prices-price-to-rent-ratio-897
on “U.S. house prices are rising exponentially faster than income”Submitted Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio and Price-to-Median Income in December as a story · 5 points
HN discussionWhy do people keep saying this? Sure interest rates were high a long time ago but right now today there are a crap load of people with low interest rate mortgages effectively trapped in their houses. When more than half of the population has a 5% or higher mortgage rate then you can start to say it’s not that high. https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/fhfas-national-mortgag...
Comment linking /p/fhfas-national-mortgage-database-243?utm_source=chatgpt.com
on “Generative AI as Seniority-Biased Technological Change”Submitted New Home Sales Decrease to 607,000 Annual Rate in July as a story · 4 points
HN discussionPeople living in homes financed with a generous rate (~3% like you mentioned) mortgage are unlikely to move - that's correct. However, that's not the only piece of the puzzle. Keep in mind that home builders have recently produced at the highest level since 2008 [1]. When you pair this with high rates [2], it's likely that we will see inventory sitting on the market. [1] https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-hom…
Comment linking /p/new-home-sales-decrease-sharply-record-02a
on “Ask HN: What are you doing now to profit from the current or upcoming recession?”Submitted US House prices fell nationwide in July, down 0.6 percent from previous month as a story · 3 points
HN discussionHousing is relatively affordable now compared to the past. Yes, house prices are high, but interest rates are low and household incomes are high. There is a post about it at Calculated Risk at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/real-house-prices-pric... that has an affordability index. The only time housing has been more affordable was after the financial crisis. If housing affordability affected happiness, unhap…
Comment linking /p/real-house-prices-price-to-rent-ratio-ade
on “New data shows Americans more miserable than we've been in half a century”Submitted What Will Happen with House Prices? as a story · 3 points
HN discussionI signed up for the newsletter for this one - https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/apartment-vacancy-rate... - again, I don't know the interests, but he seems data-driven and there's a sense of neutrality in the analysis. YouTube-wise I've grown fond of "Wealthion" which has interviews with analysts in the financial industry, not all with the same views (although there's pessimism these days). And they're not gold…
Comment linking /p/apartment-vacancy-rate-declined-in-bbe?r=6x6ly&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
on “America Faces a Housing Bust”Submitted Mortgage Rates Moving Closer to 5% as a story · 3 points
HN discussionAs a recent measure, https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/measuring-rents
Comment linking /p/measuring-rents
on “Stock Sale Day Before Fed Emergency”Submitted Single Family Built-for-Rent Almost Doubled Since 2020 as a story · 2 points
HN discussiondata points to no: https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/4th-look-at-local-hous... prices may not rise but there’s no inventory.
Comment linking /p/4th-look-at-local-housing-markets-f4b?r=8yria&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
on “Google’s 80-acre San Jose mega-campus is on hold”Submitted Current State of the US Housing Market as a story · 2 points
HN discussionSubmitted US House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory as a story · 2 points
HN discussionSubmitted Will House Prices Decline Nationally? as a story · 2 points
HN discussionSubmitted The Sellers Strike and Housing Inventory as a story · 2 points
HN discussionSubmitted 30-Year Mortgage Rates Decrease to 5.50% as a story · 2 points
HN discussionSubmitted The Household Mystery: Part II as a story · 2 points
HN discussionSubmitted US Housing and Demographics as a story · 2 points
HN discussionSubmitted How High Will Mortgage Rates Rise? as a story · 2 points
HN discussionSubmitted Don't Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust as a story · 2 points
HN discussionSubmitted A Look at Local USA Housing Markets in February as a story · 2 points
HN discussionSubmitted First Look at Local Housing Markets in October as a story · 1 points
HN discussionSubmitted Immigration and Household Formation as a story · 1 points
HN discussionSubmitted Some Thoughts on Quantitative Easing and Quantitative Tightening as a story · 1 points
HN discussionSubmitted 2nd Look at Local US Housing Markets in January as a story · 1 points
HN discussionSubmitted Current State of the US Housing Market; Overview for Mid-July as a story · 1 points
HN discussion