Top all-time · #605
BloombergNEF
Company blog · about.bnef.com/blogeconomicsbusiness
BloombergNEF is the company blog at about.bnef.com, writing about economics and business. Since 2015, 101 different Hacker News readers have linked it 197 times, most often “Bloomberg NEF – Electric Vehicle Outlook 2024”. It is still writing: the last post was on 2026-10-30, and you can follow it by feed.
BNEF is a strategic research provider delivering clear perspectives on global commodity markets and the disruptive technologies driving the energy transition.
Most-linked posts?
- /blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/11 people · 12 mentions · first linked 2019-07-30
- Bloomberg NEF – Electric Vehicle Outlook 20247 people · 9 mentions · first linked 2017-07-10
- Lithium-Ion Battery Pack Prices Hit Record Low of $139/KWh7 people · 7 mentions · first linked 2023-12-07
- Battery Pack Prices Cited Below $100/KWh for the First Time in 20206 people · 6 mentions · first linked 2020-12-18
- Generative AI – The Power and the Glory4 people · 5 mentions · first linked 2024-12-26
- Lithium-Ion Battery Pack Prices Rise for First Time to an Average of $151/KWh4 people · 4 mentions · first linked 2022-12-09
- /blog/china-already-makes-as-many-batteries-as-the-entire-world-wants/3 people · 11 mentions · first linked 2024-05-04
- The definitive resource for clean energy investment3 people · 5 mentions · first linked 2023-04-25
- /blog/battery-pack-prices-fall-as-market-ramps-up-with-market-average-at-156-kwh-in-2019/3 people · 4 mentions · first linked 2019-12-05
- Battery Pack Prices Fall to $132/KWh, but Rising Commodity Prices Start to Bite3 people · 3 mentions · first linked 2021-12-01
What Hacker News says?
The world builds several TWh of batteries every year. https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-transport/china-alread...
Comment linking /insights/clean-transport/china-already-makes-as-many-batteries-as-the-entire-world-wants/
on “Solar surpasses nuclear power globally for first time”Submitted Battery Pack Prices Fall As Market Ramps Up as a story · 375 points
HN discussion> Oh and lithium ion batteries lose half their charge every 10 years or less. Most Teslas sold today will still be driving with their original batteries and well over 60-70% of their capacity well beyond ten years. Tesla warranty actually covers them up to 8 years up to 70%. Meaning they are fully confident they can promise that and keep their money in the bank. > even the most optimistic battery price no one has ev…
Comment linking /blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/
on “Megapack: Utility-Scale Energy Storage”Submitted Battery Power's Latest Plunge in Costs Threatens Coal, Gas as a story · 301 points
HN discussionWhile still significant, the impact of lithium cost on battery cost is commonly far overestimated: "A 50% increase in lithium prices would for instance increase the battery pack price of a nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) 811 battery by less than 4%." [1] Nevertheless, together with improvements in (low-cobalt) battery chemistry, this sounds like an important piece of the puzzle. [1] https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-…
Comment linking /blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/
on “Scientists develop ‘cheap and easy’ method to extract lithium from seawater”Submitted A Behind the Scenes Take on Lithium-Ion Battery Prices as a story · 142 points
HN discussionWhen we get to high levels of renewable penetration on the grid, we are going to have tons of excess energy, and capacity far past demand. We have that with current generation systems too; we don't run natural gas at full bore all the time, usually. Most generators run at a capacity factor far below 100%. The difference is that renewables generate power at zero marginal cost, while a natural gas turbine has fuel cos…
Comment linking /blog/liebreich-separating-hype-from-hydrogen-part-two-the-demand-side/
on “The world needs nuclear power and we shouldn’t be afraid of it”Submitted Energy Storage Investments Boom as Battery Costs Halve in the Next Decade as a story · 127 points
HN discussionI'm not scared of nuclear, but I'm terrified of climate change. We don't need nuclear, because we have other options for firm low-carbon energy (geothermal) and energy storage of surplus and super-cheap intermittent renewables (lithium ion, flow batteries, hydrogen, methane, compressed air, liquid air...). If nuclear could compete on cost, we should go for it, but it can't without a major tech breakthrough. The pote…
Comment linking /blog/liebreich-separating-hype-from-hydrogen-part-two-the-demand-side/
on “The world needs nuclear power and we shouldn’t be afraid of it”Submitted Hydrogen Could Replace Coke in Steel Production as a story · 76 points
HN discussionBloomberg NEF actually ran an interesting article a few weeks ago suggesting that we'll have all the batteries we need to electrify all road traffic: https://about.bnef.com/blog/china-already-makes-as-many-batt... They are tracking all the companies and investments involved with battery production and one of their claims is that new battery production is going to outstrip demand in the next few years. That will like…
Comment linking /blog/china-already-makes-as-many-batteries-as-the-entire-world-wants/
on “Lithium-free sodium batteries exit the lab and enter US production”Submitted Electric Vehicles – It's Not Just About the Car as a story · 62 points
HN discussionIt looks like $156 in 2019 & $137 in 2020. Estimates are $100/kwh by 2023-24 and $58/kwh by 2030. I do wonder how a dramatic shift towards Li powered cars will effect the price. We may see demand outpace supply for a decade or more. I hope it is the other way around because cheap lithium batteries flooding the market would have many positive implications. https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-cited-below-.…
Comment linking /blog/battery-pack-prices-cited-below-100-kwh-for-the-first-time-in-2020-while-market-average-sits-at-137-kwh/
on “The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades”Submitted Long-Term Clean Energy Optimism, Short-Term Caution as a story · 60 points
HN discussion- nl · 2022-08-01
> You are handwaving away the nonexistent storage tech required to stand up a power grid. Please stop. This isn't true. If you accept 5% non-renewable power generation (which - lets face it - will be with us for a while!) you need storage at $150/kWh to use renewables for everything else[1]. This price is available now (and forecast to drop below $100/kWh next year)[2]. [1] https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-…
Comment linking /blog/battery-pack-prices-cited-below-100-kwh-for-the-first-time-in-2020-while-market-average-sits-at-137-kwh/
on “Nuclear energy is clean” Submitted Separating Hype from Hydrogen: EU's 6GW Electrolyzer Plan as a story · 56 points
HN discussionThe path to vehicle electrification might not be that long: https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/ Also, it's worth making the distinction between vehicles and vehicle miles travelled. We might not replace all the cars right away, but the majority of the miles travelled might convert pretty quickly if they're done via TCO sensitive fleet vehicles (Uber, Lyft, etc) and/or 2nd car commuter vehicles.
Comment linking /electric-vehicle-outlook/
on “The Third Phase of Clean Energy Will Be Most Disruptive Yet”Submitted Liebreich: Net Zero Will Be Harder Than You Think – and Easier. Part II: Easier as a story · 28 points
HN discussionActually by the standards of rates of change in the energy industry, we are going to all have solar panels powering our homes 'overnight' (see the rapid growth of solar forecast in slide 33 of the doc linked below). In many areas, due to rapid price declines and relatively low prevailing interest rates, solar is cost competitive without subsidy now so the ROI is real. As cumulative solar installations continue to gr…
Comment linking /content/uploads/sites/4/2015/04/BNEF_2014-04-08-ML-Summit-Keynote_Final.pdf
on “Project Sunroof”Submitted Lithium-Ion Battery Pack Prices See Largest Drop Since 2017, Falling to $115kWHr as a story · 11 points
HN discussionthe OP references the bloomberg article which does say economies of scale, but also "thanks to improvements in manufacturing equipment and increased energy density at the cathode and cell level" https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-fall-as-mark...
Comment linking /blog/battery-pack-prices-fall-as-market-ramps-up-with-market-average-at-156-kwh-in-2019/
on “Battery Pack Prices Fall As Market Ramps Up”Submitted Global Cost of Renewables to Continue Falling in 2025 as China Extends Lead as a story · 7 points
HN discussionBloomberg NEF is actually making the point that we're heading for battery oversupply next year: https://about.bnef.com/blog/china-already-makes-as-many-batt... Not just by a little bit, but by a huge margin. They are predicting prices will come down and that especially new, costly batteries will have a hard time competing with the more established manufacturers dropping their prices. We'll make more batteries in the…
Comment linking /blog/china-already-makes-as-many-batteries-as-the-entire-world-wants/
on “First anode-free sodium solid-state battery”Submitted Generative AI – The Power and the Glory as a story · 4 points
HN discussionDisagree. We’re already past peak combustion vehicle sales per Bloomberg NEF, and the rate of EV sales will only increase based on operating costs versus combustion vehicles. Lots of folks interested in EVs when fuel is $5-6/gallon, which will remain for some time. Gotta scale up faster, build the machine that builds the machine and whatnot. https://e360.yale.edu/digest/new-analysis-suggests-we-have-p... https://abo…
Comment linking /blog/electric-vehicle-sales-set-to-rise-faster-than-ever-but-more-policy-action-needed-to-get-on-track-for-net-zero/
on “Federal Reserve raises rates by 0.75%”Submitted Global Energy Storage Market Records Biggest Jump yet (BNEF) as a story · 4 points
HN discussionGreen Parties generally. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_party You can tell they are effective as they get regularly attacked by people here who seem to have a visceral hatred of them and very weird justifications for why (they're under the thrall of the fossil fuel companies apparently) Anyone that advocates for increasing democracy generally, whether more representational democracy in existing democracies th…
Comment linking /contact/
on “Ask HN: Working in tech for climate?”Submitted New Energy Outlook as a story · 3 points
HN discussionOPEC is desperate. 20% of vehicles sold globally last year were EVs and hybrids (to a lesser extent). The world is getting off of oil and the sandbox is not prepared for life after. A petrodollar was always to become irrelevant if climate goals were to be met. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/13/opec-calls-for-more-fossil-f... https://www.iea.org/news/slowing-demand-growth-and-surging-s... https://about.bnef.com/blog/el…
Comment linking /blog/electric-cars-have-dented-fuel-demand-by-2040-theyll-slash-it/
on “U.S.-Saudi petrodollar pact ends after 50 years”Submitted China Second in BloombergNEF's Li-Ion Battery Supply Chain Ranks; Canada on Top as a story · 3 points
HN discussion
