Top all-time · #3085
Bryan Caplan
Personal blog · betonit.aieconomicspolitics
Bryan Caplan writes Bet On It, a personal blog at betonit.ai about economics and politics. Since 2024, 24 different Hacker News readers have linked it 123 times, most often “Do ten times as much (2023)”. It is still writing: the last post was on 2026-10-30, and you can follow it by feed.
Caplan and Candor. Click to read Bet On It, by Bryan Caplan, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
Most-linked posts?
- Do ten times as much (2023)6 people · 6 mentions · first linked 2024-03-24
- The Ambition Project2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2026-08-06
- Tenure Is a Total Scam2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2024-06-07
What Hacker News says?
It's generally a myth that government employees are somehow receiving low total compensation and they could do better in the real economy. Here's one government employees providing stats and experiences about what it is like to work for the government: https://www.betonit.ai/p/the-joy-of-government-employment
Comment linking /p/the-joy-of-government-employment
on “Mark Cuban offers to fund former 18F employees”Submitted 100 Years of Rent Control in Sweden as a story · 48 points
HN discussionIn addition to passing bar exam[0], improved performance on medical questions[1], economics questions that experts thought it was years away from[2], all the other things marked in green on page 6 were just the changes from 3.5 to 4: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.08774 4o added image analysis. The o-series starting at o1 improves on 4o as per the margins in these charts: https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with…
Comment linking /p/gpt-4-takes-a-new-midterm-and-gets
on “Recent results show that LLMs struggle with compositional tasks”Submitted CDs vs. NIMBY as a story · 41 points
HN discussionI like to drive. Edit: see also this pro-car, pro-toll note by Bryan Caplan. https://www.betonit.ai/p/cars-could-be-even-more-convenient
Comment linking /p/cars-could-be-even-more-convenient
on “43K fewer drivers on Manhattan roads after congestion pricing turned on”Submitted Reflections on Americans' Net Worth as a story · 38 points
HN discussionVolume is incredibly important for any truly serious endeavor. Bryan Caplan's excellent post Do Ten Times As Much makes the point succinctly. [1] I've come to believe the real reason people shouldn't pursue these kinds of sports or games professionally unless they're born with a deep thirst for winning them is twofold. First, if you love it from day one, the chances that you're actually better than average are highe…
Comment linking /p/do-ten-times-as-much
on “Reflections on Luck and Skill from the Part Time Poker Grind”Submitted The Typical Man Disgusts the Typical Woman as a story · 36 points
HN discussionMy condolences, but it is in fact entirely normal in a modern market economy that you don't get offered a minimum-responsibility cushy sinecure for life. https://www.betonit.ai/p/tenure-is-a-total-scam
Comment linking /p/tenure-is-a-total-scam
on “I was denied tenure – how do I cope?”Submitted Do ten times as much (2023) as a story · 20 points
HN discussionInteresting fact. Bryan Caplan is a economist who became famous for making bets on the future. He would take the "nothing ever happens" side of the bet, and he would almost always win. In 2023 he took the "nothing ever happens" side of an AI bet. Just 6 months later, he wrote: "When the answers change, I change my mind [...] Base rates have clearly failed me. I’m not conceding the bet, because I still think there’s…
Comment linking /p/gpt-retakes-my-midterm-and-gets-an
on “Pacing the frontier”Submitted The Obvious-Once-You-Think-About-It Reason Why Education Cuts Fertility as a story · 13 points
HN discussionSubmitted The High Price of Doctors: A Disease of Regulation (2013) as a story · 10 points
HN discussionSubmitted Tenure Is a Total Scam as a story · 9 points
HN discussionSubmitted What Americans Think About Nuclear Power as a story · 4 points
HN discussionSubmitted What Is the Forced Organ Donation Hypothetical? as a story · 4 points
HN discussionSubmitted Propaganda Is Proof by Repetition as a story · 4 points
HN discussionSubmitted Neo-Median Voter Model as a story · 3 points
HN discussionSubmitted He's Got My Vote: An Atypically Productive Exchange on the UBI as a story · 3 points
HN discussionSubmitted High Agency Is High Variance as a story · 3 points
HN discussionSubmitted Hand-Holding Explained as a story · 3 points
HN discussionSubmitted Vocational Credential Inflation as a story · 3 points
HN discussionSubmitted People Get Good at Their Jobs Through Practice as a story · 3 points
HN discussionSubmitted People Barely Care About Relative Income: Some Empirics as a story · 3 points
HN discussionSubmitted The Worst Neighborhood in Japan as a story · 3 points
HN discussionSubmitted Should the United States Limit Immigration Based on Merit? as a story · 3 points
HN discussionSubmitted The pretty lie in the sanctuary of ugly truths as a story · 3 points
HN discussionSubmitted Do Ten Times as Much as a story · 3 points
HN discussionSubmitted Bad Arguments Against Funded Desertion as a story · 3 points
HN discussionSubmitted The Ambition Project as a story · 2 points
HN discussion
