Top all-time · #5874
Cassandra's Legacy
Personal blog · cassandralegacy.blogspot.comscienceeconomics
Cassandra's Legacy is a personal blog at cassandralegacy.blogspot.com about science and economics. Since 2011, 14 different Hacker News readers have linked it 20 times, most often “The next 10B years”. The last post was in 2023, but the archive is still widely read.
Too few sampled comments (12) to say how often HN recommends it.?
Why HN links it
HN readers link this blog for its posts on resource depletion and collapse, especially the 'Seneca cliff' idea that complex systems fail suddenly. It is also cited on peak oil, rare-earth and cobalt supply, and Rome's decline.
Summarised by Claude from a sample of 12 HN comments that link here. Each comment is marked recommending, critical or neutral (citing without judging); how this works.
Climate Change, Resource Depletion, Overpopulation, are all threats that humankind needs to face. Science can help us to prepare even for the worst case hypothesis
Most-linked posts?
- The next 10B years2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2014-01-22
- /2011/08/seneca-effect-origins-of-collapse.html2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2017-12-14
What Hacker News says?
> I guess it depends on your definition of "quickly", or it would be good to see a citation on this one. A citation in your favor would be how net energy output only slowly declines as EROI plummets[1]. Slow decline is a general property of these types ”Seneca Cliffs”[2] present in collapse. [1] https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-03-12/the-real-energ... [2] https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2011/08/seneca-ef…
Comment linking /2011/08/seneca-effect-origins-of-collapse.html
on “Landfill is underrated and recycling overrated”Submitted Something is deeply wrong: the minister and the neutrino as a story · 5 points
HN discussionWere we ever? The timescale of human evolution to date is on the order of 2 million years or so since we branched from our common ancestor with chimpanzees. Somewhere around 80,000 years ago (plus or minus) we seem to have reached modern levels of cognitive ability, specifically, the capacity to keep 7 +/- 2 things in mind at the same time, as evidenced by the anthropological record -- stone artifacts and such. Writ…
Comment linking /2012/09/the-next-ten-billion-years.html
on “2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor”Submitted The next 10B years as a story · 3 points
HN discussionRome hadn't been sacked for like a thousand of years, so the first time that happened again, you bet they noticed ! https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2011/12/chemistry-of-em...
Comment linking /2011/12/chemistry-of-empire-last-roman-empress.html
on “Rome: Decline and Fall? Part II: Institutions”Submitted Ugo Bardi: Diminishing returns a key factor in societal collapse as a story · 2 points
HN discussionBullshit https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2018/05/rare-earth-depl...
Comment linking /2018/05/rare-earth-depletion-non-solution-for.html
on “Deposit of rare-earth minerals off Japan could supply world for centuries (2018)”Submitted How long will the rich be willing to share the roads with the poor? as a story · 2 points
HN discussionIt was part of the downfall of the Roman Empire 1. Not enough mines to mine silver, exhausted based on their technology 2. China sold silk and other stuff and accumulating silver https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2014/03/peak-civilizati...
Comment linking /2014/03/peak-civilization-how-roman-empire.html
on “Monetagium – monetary extortion in feudal Europe”Submitted Open access science as a story · 2 points
HN discussion> This brings us to the "Seneca effect" http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2011/08/seneca-effect-or... Thanks for the reference, seems a nicely concise overview. The resources and industrial output graph almost jumps out ...
Comment linking /2011/08/seneca-effect-origins-of-collapse.html
on “The Limits to Growth (1972) [pdf]”Submitted New Rare Earth Deposits: A Non-Solution for a Non-Problem as a story · 1 points
HN discussion"The simplest: No exhaustible has been depleted yet" You are correct. In fact, they never will be depleted. Same with the oil. Most of the oil that is still in the ground will stay there. "These forecasts are made possible by assuming the limit on the amount of oil extracted is the amount of oil in the ground. In fact, the limit is likely to be a financial (debt) limit that comes much sooner." https://ourfiniteworld…
Comment linking /2011/08/seneca-effect-origins-of-collapse.html
on “The Limits to Growth (1972) [pdf]”Submitted The Energy Transition: Too Little, Too Late as a story · 1 points
HN discussionGaël Giraud, chief economist of the national French agency for development, says that the only economic simulation that reliably tracked actual data for nearly 50 years is World3. He often says that usually, building a model predicting 18 months in the future is a sure way to get the Nobel, but this one is in a class of its own. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World3 Here are some scientists' papers and opinions: http…
Comment linking /2011/09/cassandra-and-limits-to-growth.html
on “Arctic now locked into devastating temperature rise, UN report says”Submitted Peak Uranium: the uncertain future of nuclear energy as a story · 1 points
HN discussionPeak-a-Boo https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2018/05/rare-earth-depl...
Comment linking /2018/05/rare-earth-depletion-non-solution-for.html
on “The potential of deep-sea mud as a source of rare-earth elements (2018)”We've met "peak cement" in 2015. What does that mean? We don't know yet... https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2019/01/what-happened-i...
Comment linking /2019/01/what-happened-in-2015-that-changed.html
on “The Sorry State of the World Economy”The term you're looking for is "Seneca Cliff", after the Roman Stoic philosopher, statesman, and dramatist. It's the observation that large and complex systems tend to fail suddenly and catastrophically. http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2014/12/fossil-fuels-are... We see this in business as well: the falls of MCI-Worldcom, Enron, and the collapses of multiple financial bubbles follow this dynamic.
Comment linking /2014/12/fossil-fuels-are-we-on-edge-of-seneca.html
on “Is global collapse imminent? (2014) [pdf]”Somewhat fascinatinagly, being renewable doesn't actually change the dynamics : https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2011/05/peak-oil-thermo... (With the exception that whales, if left alone, might eventually bounce back.)
Comment linking /2011/05/peak-oil-thermodynamics-and-stoic.html?m=1
on “Cobalt, a crucial battery material, is suddenly superabundant”
