Top all-time · #2624
GMO
Company blog · gmo.com/americas/research-libraryeconomicsbusiness
GMO is the company blog at gmo.com, writing about economics and business. Since 2011, 29 different Hacker News readers have linked it 40 times, most often “The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble”. No feed was found, so read it on the site itself.
Too few sampled comments (18) to say how often HN recommends it.?
Why HN links it
HN readers link GMO's research library for its asset-class forecasts and market valuation commentary, especially Grantham-linked 7-year return projections and bubble warnings. Commenters cite it as a source on equity valuations.
Summarised by Claude from a sample of 18 HN comments that link here. Each comment is marked recommending, critical or neutral (citing without judging); how this works.
GMO partners with sophisticated institutions, financial intermediaries, and families to provide innovative solutions to meet their long-term investment needs.
Most-linked posts?
- The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble3 people · 4 mentions · first linked 2021-01-12
- Today in the U.S. we are in the fourth superbubble of the last hundred years3 people · 3 mentions · first linked 2022-01-20
- The race of our lives, revisited [pdf]2 people · 3 mentions · first linked 2018-09-30
- /docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-allocation/the-s-p-500-just-say-no.pdf2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2017-08-23
What Hacker News says?
Yup overvalued. The GMO report which is about the best source I've found for this stuff had the projected 7 year return for US equities at -2%/year which is not great. https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/public-commentary/gm... p9
Comment linking /docs/default-source/public-commentary/gmo-quarterly-letter.pdf
on “Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight”Submitted The World's Dumbest Idea: Maximizing Shareholder Value [pdf] as a story · 379 points
HN discussionIf he buys today for 100 something he could have bought in a couple of years for 65, I’m not sure he will agree that “it really, really doesn’t matter”. Market timing is difficult and there may not be a crash but stocks are objectively expensive now and it’s hard to see how the recent performance could continue for long: https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/research-and-comment...
Comment linking /docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-allocation/the-s-p-500-just-say-no.pdf
on “Wall Street Banks Warn Downturn Is Coming”Submitted Today in the U.S. we are in the fourth superbubble of the last hundred years as a story · 136 points
HN discussion> During a short squeeze, assets are "mispriced" If we are going to call exchange-traded equities "mispriced," then I think it's fair to say that the mispricing exists prior to a short squeeze, when the stock is compressed by the price impact of the short seller. > their prices have high volatility. Volatility is not necessarily bad for markets. > Having a "correct" and "stable" price for assets is fundamentally imp…
Comment linking /americas/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/
on “It’s Time for Real Time Settlement”Submitted The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble as a story · 125 points
HN discussionThe gyst of Grantham’s essay which I posted below (also at the bottom of this comment), throws into question that optimism. With evidence, Grantham demonstrates the possibility that a nexus of climate change, soil degradation and population growth threatens Africa’s development trajectory. My view is that this will happen within 20 years as banks pull credit lines from farmers at risk of weather shock. Indeed this i…
Comment linking /docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-allocation/the-race-of-our-lives-revisited.pdf?sfvrsn=2
on “Decline of Global Extreme Poverty Continues but Has Slowed”Submitted The World's Dumbest Idea: Maximizing Shareholder Value (2014) [pdf] as a story · 72 points
HN discussionRosling, Pinker and Gates are right to point out that there have been absolute improvements in living standards across the globe. However as Jeremy Grantham (the British Warren Buffet) warns, these current improvements may have been bought at the expense of future losses as we have destabilized the climate and mined the soils to achieve the gains of recent years. Grantham projects 40% loss in soil productivity in a…
Comment linking /docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-allocation/the-race-of-our-lives-revisited.pdf?sfvrsn=2
on “Decline of Global Extreme Poverty Continues but Has Slowed”Submitted The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble as a story · 58 points
HN discussionHis former company's projected class returns the best seems "emerging value" stocks. ( https://www.gmo.com/europe/research-library/gmo-7-year-asset... ) What exactly you buy to achieve that I'm not sure.
Comment linking /europe/research-library/gmo-7-year-asset-class-forecast-4q-2021/
on “Today in the U.S. we are in the fourth superbubble of the last hundred years”Submitted Let the Wild Rumpus Begin as a story · 14 points
HN discussionI'm not sure if you have to verify as some sort of investing class to access but GMO (Grantham's fund) has a lot of papers published. This: https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/research-and-comment... has that quoted figure and references this: 2 D.R. Montgomery, Dirt: The Erosion of Civilizations, University of California Press, 2007.
Comment linking /docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-allocation/the-race-of-our-lives-revisited.pdf?sfvrsn=4
on “Investing Prophet Jeremy Grantham Takes Aim at Climate Change”Submitted Chemical Toxicity and the Baby Bust (2020) [pdf] as a story · 6 points
HN discussionGMO has pounding this drum for years[1][2]. Eventually, they'll be right, but not because they were able to call it correctly. In fact given the run-up since they started calling for the bubble to burst you'd likely still be ahead if the bubble burst tomorrow and stocks halved in value. Now a lot of what they say has some truth to it, and they might actually be right. But they might also continue being wrong for yea…
Comment linking /americas/research-library/is-the-u.s.-stock-market-bubble-bursting/
on “The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble”Submitted The race of our lives, revisited [pdf] as a story · 3 points
HN discussion> GMO's assets under management have collapsed by well over 50% over the years Do you have a source for this? It looks like they've been hovering at $64B discretionary AUM since 2014, and that hasn't changed through 2020. [1][2] All I could find was this article, which I think might be misleading. [3] It seems like it might be conflating GMO's total AUM with the AUM of its asset allocation business, but I'm not sure…
Comment linking /globalassets/documents---manually-loaded/documents/legalcompliance-footer/gmopart2adv4113finalforpdf.pdf
on “The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble”Submitted Let the Wild Rumpus Begin as a story · 2 points
HN discussionMuch of Africa’s soils have only 20 years of harvests left. This paper, by the British Warren Buffet, explains the problem and is well worth the read if you have the time. It’s well-written so not as daunting as it’s length otherwise makes it look. https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/research-and-comment...
Comment linking /docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset-allocation/the-race-of-our-lives-revisited.pdf
on “How the West Was Lost: In America’s First Climate War”Submitted The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble as a story · 2 points
HN discussionRelated: "VALUE INVESTING: BRUISED BY 1000 CUTS" https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/value-investin... Direct link to PDF: https://www.gmo.com/globalassets/articles/insights/asset-all...
Comment linking /globalassets/articles/insights/asset-allocation/2019/rf_value-bruised-by-1000-cuts_5-19.pdf
on “Value Is Dead, Long Live Value”Submitted Jeremy Grantham’s take on climate change and fertility loss as a story · 2 points
HN discussionIt's a different kind of stuff but I find Jeremy Grantham pretty insightful. Grantham does more overall market levels rather than individual stocks, Buffett the reverse. Here's a recent one https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/waiting-for-th... on how things are a bit pricey now. Though he's not a perma bear - this is one he put out saying things were cheap almost exactly at the 2009 bottom https://www.gmo.…
Comment linking /americas/research-library/reinvesting-when-terrified/
on “2020 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letter [pdf]”Submitted Ten Quick Topics to Ruin Your Summer as a story · 2 points
HN discussionHere's the (non-pdf) executive summary: https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/the-worlds-dum...
Comment linking /americas/research-library/the-worlds-dumbest-idea/
on “The World's Dumbest Idea: Maximizing Shareholder Value (2014) [pdf]”Submitted What Barbarians Like to Take Private as a story · 1 points
HN discussionJeremy Grantham co-founded the investment firm GMO. They're famous for 7 year forecasts by asset classes. Here's the bearish December 2020 forecast: https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/gmo-7-year-ass... He's been overly bearish for quite some time, here's the 7 year forecast from December 2009: https://ritholtz.com/2010/01/7-year-asset-class-forecasts/ Here's a recent talk he gave: https://www.youtube.com/…
Comment linking /americas/research-library/gmo-7-year-asset-class-forecast-4q-2020/
on “The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble”Submitted Jeremy Grantham: After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder as a story · 1 points
HN discussionTichy is exactly right, and this point on its own makes passive investing extremely dangerous (though I tend to agree that on average, putting your money with an active money manager is even more dangerous). The indices are rather arbitrary and set by institutions whose incentives have nothing to do with investor returns. The securities included in the indices are in no way selected for expected performance, and it'…
Comment linking /America/
on “Picking Investments: Only Two Things Matter”Submitted Let the Wild Rumpus Begin as a story · 1 points
HN discussion
