Top all-time · #1085
Oaktree Capital
Company blog · oaktreecapital.com/insights/memoeconomicsbusiness
Oaktree Capital is the company blog at oaktreecapital.com, writing about economics and business. Since 2009, 62 different Hacker News readers have linked it 81 times, most often “Economic Reality”. No feed was found, so read it on the site itself.
Oaktree Capital Management: Global investment firm specializing in alternative investments, delivering superior risk-adjusted returns with a value-oriented approach.
Most-linked posts?
- Economic Reality9 people · 9 mentions · first linked 2016-07-05
- On Bubble Watch4 people · 4 mentions · first linked 2025-01-07
- Is it a bubble?4 people · 4 mentions · first linked 2025-12-09
- There they go again, again [pdf]3 people · 3 mentions · first linked 2017-07-26
- Howard Marks: Sea Change3 people · 3 mentions · first linked 2022-12-14
- Howard Marks: Which Way Now? [pdf]3 people · 3 mentions · first linked 2020-04-01
- The Calculus of Value3 people · 3 mentions · first linked 2025-08-15
- Shall We Repeal the Laws of Economics – Part III2 people · 3 mentions · first linked 2026-09-22
- The Illusion of Knowledge2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2022-10-03
- AI Hurtles Ahead2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2026-02-28
What Hacker News says?
A better way to read this is "80% of a not losing strategy". The author agrees with this but buries the lede at the very end of the piece: "Is this a fail-safe path? Of course not. Even in chess. The rest of the game does matter." I also think his framing is somewhat misleading, since the default mindset (Despite his hedging) is that you will win (Or have higher chances) if you don't blunder. The problem is that win…
Comment linking /insights/memo/fewer-losers-or-more-winners
on “Avoid blundering: 80% of a winning strategy”Submitted Is it a bubble? as a story · 336 points
HN discussionA very useful caveat from the insightful, and cautious, Howard Marks - > In that regard, the Financial Times noted on June 1 that “the [yield curve] has ‘inverted’ before every US recession in 50 years.” (Note, however, that this is different from saying every inversion has been followed by a recession.) https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/thi...
Comment linking /docs/default-source/memos/this-time-its-different.pdf
on “Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K”Submitted You Bet [pdf] as a story · 97 points
HN discussionThis remind me of the Howard Marks 'Economic Reality' essay. https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/eco...
Comment linking /docs/default-source/memos/economic-reality.pdf
on “I was tricked into thinking I had “grit””Submitted There they go again, again [pdf] as a story · 49 points
HN discussionSomewhat related is this memo by Howard Marks that talks about the liquidity of ETFs (starts on page 6 -- the whole thing is a great read). When the market sharply drops and there is no liquidity for sellers, it might be even worse for holders of ETFs as they will have even less liquidity than the sellers of the underlying stock. [1] https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/201...
Comment linking /docs/default-source/memos/2015-03-25-liquidity.pdf?sfvrsn=2
on “A look behind the scenes at an index fund with Vanguard's Gerry O'Reilly”Submitted Economic Reality as a story · 38 points
HN discussion"All models are wrong, some are useful" The efficient market hypothesis ("homo economicus") model is a prime example. Of course it is wrong. It is a model. That doesn't mean it is not useful. Howard Marks (highly successful investor over many decades) has this to say about it > if you ignore the efficient market hypothesis, you’re going to be very disappointed, because you’re going to find out that very few of your…
Comment linking /insights/memo/conversation-at-panmure-house
on “We don't have a hundred biases, we have the wrong model”Submitted Mysterious: Latest memo from Howard Marks on negative interest rates as a story · 15 points
HN discussionThe craziness of recent Uber and WeWork and other unicorn valuations (with SoftBank just doubling their bets to show valuation growth) looks like a peak in the investment euphoria and what we should expect next is a swing back ala https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/200... This article adds to that notion.
Comment linking /docs/default-source/memos/2004-07-21-the-happy-medium.pdf?sfvrsn=2
on “The fundamental problem with Silicon Valley’s favorite growth strategy”Submitted Is it a Bubble? (Howard Marks) [pdf] as a story · 5 points
HN discussionHoward Marks' take on bond yields: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/shall-we-repeal...
Comment linking /insights/memo/shall-we-repeal-the-laws-of-economics---part-iii
on “10-year Treasury yield climbs above 5.3% to a level not seen in 24 years”Submitted On Bubble Watch as a story · 5 points
HN discussionHoward Mark's latest memo has much to say about low interest rates and market returns. He also compares today's tech stocks to the Nifty fifty stocks of the late 60s, which went on to have poor returns after becoming overpriced in the way tech stocks are now. https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos
Comment linking /insights/howard-marks-memos
on “The stock market is the cheapest since 1980”Submitted Is It a Bubble? as a story · 4 points
HN discussionIf you like his memos I recommend the "bubble.com" memo from 2000: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/200... Timely written, at the very peak of the mania (though Marks correctly admits that such precise timing is accidental, knowing well the difference between luck and skill :) ). You can find all Howard Marks memos on Oaktree's website.
Comment linking /docs/default-source/memos/2000-01-02-bubble.pdf
on “You Bet [pdf]”Submitted Howard Marks: Political Reality Meets Economic Reality [pdf] as a story · 4 points
HN discussionIf you actually read the latest memo from Howard Marks, he tried to understand Bitcoin but couldn't make sense of it: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos Then he makes the perplexing argument, "But they're not real." And he calls it a fad and possibly a pyramid scheme. But obviously if you don't understand something, you shouldn't invest in it.
Comment linking /insights/howard-marks-memos
on “There they go again, again [pdf]”Submitted Dare to be great (2006) [pdf] as a story · 3 points
HN discussionInstead of reading this value-empty article, here is the report: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/the... In my opinion, the report shows a lack of understanding of the fundamentals and inner-working of both bitcoin and other digital currencies. It is hard for me to take a report so seriously when the author shows incompetency in the underlined topic. The report main argument against crypto-cu…
Comment linking /docs/default-source/memos/there-they-go-again-again.pdf
on “There they go again, again [pdf]”Submitted Bubble Watch as a story · 3 points
HN discussionHere's Howard Marks about what's priced in and what isnt: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/whi... TL;DR: markers are pricing in a V shaped recovery in a couple of months
Comment linking /docs/default-source/memos/which-way-now.pdf
on “A 3000% jump in jobless claims has devastated the US job market”Submitted Bubble Watch as a story · 3 points
HN discussionAlso helps to learn from great investors directly Howard Marks - https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos Berkshire Annual Letters (Warren Buffet & Charlie Munger) - https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html
Comment linking /insights/howard-marks-memos
on “Ask HN: What are the Online Investing Courses you like?”Submitted The Illusion of Knowledge as a story · 3 points
HN discussionOh, sweet summer child. Give this a skim - https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/sea-change
Comment linking /insights/memo/sea-change
on “Ask HN: How to best take advantage of the coming recession?”Submitted Something of Value: A memo from Howard Marks on value investing (2021) [pdf] as a story · 3 points
HN discussionKevin Simler - https://meltingasphalt.com Howard Marks (Finance) - https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos PG of course - http://paulgraham.com/
Comment linking /insights/howard-marks-memos
on “Ask HN: What personal blogs do you read?”Submitted The Anatomy of a Rally [pdf] as a story · 3 points
HN discussion
