Top all-time · #7060
Peter McCluskey
Personal blog · bayesianinvestor.com/blogeconomicsai
Peter McCluskey writes Bayesian Investor Blog, a personal blog at bayesianinvestor.com about economics and ai. Since 2008, 11 different Hacker News readers have linked it 13 times, most often “Moore’s Law and Artificial General Intelligence Timelines”. It is still writing: the last post was on 2026-10-23, and you can follow it by feed.
Too few sampled comments (6) to say how often HN recommends it.?
Why HN links it
Commenters cite Peter McCluskey's blog as a source on election forecasting (538 versus Intrade in 2008), sci-fi predictions by Lem and Clarke, and attention filtering. The links are mostly used as references.
Summarised by Claude from a sample of 6 HN comments that link here. Each comment is marked recommending, critical or neutral (citing without judging); how this works.
Most-linked posts?
- Moore’s Law and Artificial General Intelligence Timelines2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2017-12-22
- Avoid News, Part 2: What the Stock Market Taught Me about News2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2021-06-15
- Improve Paywalls2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2021-10-16
What Hacker News says?
That's a shame, since good insects to eat are hard to find: http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2012/09/05/ea...
Comment linking /blog/index.php/2012/09/05/eating-insects/
on “Ask PG: What Is The Most Frighteningly Ambitious Idea You Have Been Pitched On?”Submitted Avoid News, Part 2: What the Stock Market Taught Me about News as a story · 440 points
HN discussionClarke's Profiles of the Future was off on a whole lot, but still impressive. There's a recent book Where is my flying car? with the thesis that old sci-fi visions of the future could've been accurate if not for unnecessary stagnation in key areas like nuclear power. The 70s were the turning point in this view, which I think isn't crazy, though the book was pretty self-indulgent. Reviewed here: http://www.bayesianin…
Comment linking /blog/index.php/2018/10/14/where-is-my-flying-car/
on “Things Stanislaw Lem Predicted”Submitted Moore’s Law and Artificial General Intelligence Timelines as a story · 3 points
HN discussionhttps://bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2023/06/14/how-t...
Comment linking /blog/index.php/2023/06/14/how-the-world-became-rich/
on “Scientists put Jared Diamond's continental axis hypothesis to the test”Submitted Moore’s Law and AGI Timelines as a story · 2 points
HN discussion> FiveThirtyEight got Indiana right on Oct 1 from http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2008/11/06/in... (OTOH, intrade got NC when 538 didn't)
Comment linking /blog/index.php/2008/11/06/intrade-versus-fivethirtyeight/
on “How Good Was 538?”Submitted Automated Market Maker for Intrade contracts as a story · 2 points
HN discussionThe race between 538 and intrade was basically too close to call. See: http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2008/11/06/in... and http://www.portfolio.com/views/blogs/odd-numbers/2008/11/05/...
Comment linking /blog/index.php/2008/11/06/intrade-versus-fivethirtyeight/
on “How Good Was 538?”Submitted Investing for a World Transformed by AI as a story · 1 points
HN discussionIn the words of the bayesian investor[1], > Do you want to focus your attention on problems that are most likely to hurt you? That's the difference between want vs need. I may want to read all the news posted on HN, But only a fraction of it might be what I need in terms of what I need for betterment of my well-being, career etc. [1] http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2021/06/13/av...
Comment linking /blog/index.php/2021/06/13/avoid-news-part-2-what-the-stock-market-taught-me-about-news/
on “Show HN: The Sample – newsletters curated for you with machine learning”Submitted Improve Paywalls as a story · 1 points
HN discussionSubmitted Improve Paywalls as a story · 1 points
HN discussion
