Top all-time · #4874
Philipp D. Dubach
Personal blog · philippdubach.com/postsaieconomicsdata
Philipp D. Dubach's personal blog at philippdubach.com covers ai, economics and data. Since 2025, 16 different Hacker News readers have linked it 180 times, most often “Is AI Eating the World?”. It is still writing: the last post was on 2026-10-31, and you can follow it by feed.
Too few sampled comments (5) to say how often HN recommends it.?
Why HN links it
HN commenters link this blog's posts on AI, including AI coding tool productivity, on-device AI models, and AI market and investment topics. The comments are mostly bare links or citations.
Summarised by Claude from a sample of 5 HN comments that link here. Each comment is marked recommending, critical or neutral (citing without judging); how this works.
Independent writing and research on AI and markets: the economics of models and compute, quantitative finance, and macro.
Most-linked posts?
- Is AI Eating the World?4 people · 5 mentions · first linked 2025-11-24
- The Absolute Insider Mess of Prediction Markets3 people · 4 mentions · first linked 2026-02-24
- The Impossible Backhand2 people · 8 mentions · first linked 2026-02-17
- The Most Expensive Assumption in AI2 people · 8 mentions · first linked 2026-01-26
- When AI labs become defense contractors2 people · 4 mentions · first linked 2026-03-02
- Building a No-Tracking Newsletter2 people · 3 mentions · first linked 2026-01-12
- Leopold Aschenbrenner: Situational Awareness Two Years On2 people · 3 mentions · first linked 2026-05-22
- /posts/93-of-developers-use-ai-coding-tools.-productivity-hasnt-moved./2 people · 3 mentions · first linked 2026-03-05
- The Last Architecture Designed by Hand2 people · 3 mentions · first linked 2026-03-16
- On-Device AI Models Might Be the Next Reason to Upgrade Your iPhone2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2026-03-26
What Hacker News says?
I guess I have to update my pareto front then: https://philippdubach.com/posts/jev-model-router-for-pi/
Comment linking /posts/jev-model-router-for-pi/
on “GPT-6 Sol and Luna”Submitted Pozsar's Bretton Woods III: The Framework as a story · 59 points
HN discussionI was surprised by that. I run my benchmark [1] every couple of days and was sure this model will be ath the pareto frontier, if not THE pareto frontier. But no: Ember isn't picked yet. In planning, Opus 5.5 wins under the planning weights. In code, GPT-6 Sol dominates it: also 10/10, but with a higher quality score and a lower estimated cost. Ember has no intelligence index, so its starting score is only 0.73, whic…
Comment linking /posts/jev-model-router-for-pi/
on “Ember-1”Submitted 65% of Hacker News Posts Have Negative Sentiment, and They Outperform as a story · 16 points
HN discussionI love using hugo. Also wrote about some time ago how I got a perfect 100/100 Lighthouse score with Hugo and plain CSS. Feel free to have a look: https://philippdubach.com/posts/hugo-lighthouse-100/
Comment linking /posts/hugo-lighthouse-100/
on “Removing Next.js Got My Blog to 100 on Every Lighthouse Category”Submitted Forecasting Financial Markets with Timestral as a story · 11 points
HN discussionI tried to build a very similar “frontier” [1] for myself and also include writing (which is highly debatable) [1] https://philippdubach.com/posts/jev-model-router-for-pi/
Comment linking /posts/jev-model-router-for-pi/
on “Best LLM for every budget, updated daily”Submitted Michael Burry's $379 Newsletter as a story · 10 points
HN discussionAt the risk of sounding like shameless self promotion, I recently wrote about how Zoltan Pozsar predicted this over three years ago: https://philippdubach.com/posts/pozsars-bretton-woods-iii-th...
Comment linking /posts/pozsars-bretton-woods-iii-three-years-later-2/2/
on “De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance?”Submitted RSS Tinder as a story · 7 points
HN discussionThis is madness. Some stories actually have good guys. I don't know Adam directly, but we have plenty of second degree connections. I've benefited immensely from his work, have never heard anyone say a single negative thing about him, and I genuinely believe he's done more to push the web forward with Tailwind than the larger players have done (certainly more than Facebook did with React and Google has done with Ang…
Comment linking /standalone/hn-sentiment/
on “Creators of Tailwind laid off 75% of their engineering team”Submitted BERT can Predict HN Post Success with ~70% AUC as a story · 7 points
HN discussion83% win rate over industry professionals across 44 occupations. I'd believe it on those specific tasks. Near-universal adoption in software still hasn't moved DORA metrics. The model gets better every release. The output doesn't follow. Just had a closer look on those productivity metrics this week: https://philippdubach.com/posts/93-of-developers-use-ai-codi...
Comment linking /posts/93-of-developers-use-ai-coding-tools.-productivity-hasnt-moved./
on “GPT-5.4 Thinking System Card”Submitted Warner Bros Bidding War: Lessons on Aggregator Theory and Hostile Deal Mechanics as a story · 5 points
HN discussionOne of my AI predictions for 2030 was that AI agents will talk to agents [1] and this seems to be the perfect example of that. > Customers can generate detailed requests and complaints continuously, at very little cost. [1] https://philippdubach.com/posts/ai-in-2030/
Comment linking /posts/ai-in-2030/
on “How Far Will AI Assistants Go for a Refund They Can't Get?”Submitted Does working less explain Europe's GDP per capita gap with America? as a story · 4 points
HN discussionHow you objectively measuring success? 93% of Developers Use AI Coding Tools. Productivity Hasn't Moved. - https://philippdubach.com/posts/93-of-developers-use-ai-codi... - March 4th, 2026
Comment linking /posts/93-of-developers-use-ai-coding-tools.-productivity-hasnt-moved./
on “I'm OK being left behind, thanks”Submitted John Cochrane's Lesson on Inflation as a story · 4 points
HN discussion26 Jun 2025 18:15:45 UTC Situational Awareness: A One-Year Retrospective https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EGGruXRxGQx6RQt8x/situationa... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44389862 [ok] 30 Aug 2025 07:36:18 UTC Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead (2024) https://situational-awareness.ai/ https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45072686 [ok] 12 Oct 2025 15:02:14 UTC Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead https://s…
Comment linking /posts/aschenbrenners-receipts/
on “Situational Awareness Down 67% in July in AI Stock Rout”Submitted AI Consciousness Is Not a Safety Property as a story · 4 points
HN discussionThe auth logic was literally inverted. Blocking people it should allow, allowing people it should block. Probably any human reviewer would catch that in seconds, but AI code generation optimizes for code that runs, not code that's correct in domain-specific ways. I wrote about this pattern recently, AI converges to plausible output but misses the reasoning that requires actual expertise: https://philippdubach.com/po…
Comment linking /posts/the-impossible-backhand/
on “Don't run OpenClaw on your main machine”Submitted 65% of Hacker News Posts Have Negative Sentiment and They Outperform as a story · 4 points
HN discussionThanks everyone for the discussion. In the meantime I tried to take some of the learnings and posed a followup focused on predicting potentially successful titles. You can find the update here: https://philippdubach.com/standalone/hn-prediction/
Comment linking /standalone/hn-prediction/
on “65% of Hacker News Posts Have Negative Sentiment, and They Outperform”Submitted Bitcoin Security as a story · 4 points
HN discussionThanks! And appreciate you sharing the Harris clip. I sometimes listen to his meditations: https://philippdubach.com/posts/gratitude
Comment linking /posts/gratitude
on “65% of Hacker News Posts Have Negative Sentiment, and They Outperform”Submitted Nike's Crisis and the Economics of Brand Decay as a story · 4 points
HN discussionThis lines up with something I keep coming back to. Sara Hooker's research shows compact models now outperform massive predecessors on many tasks, and scaling laws only reliably predict pre-training loss, not downstream performance. A minimal transformer learning 10-digit addition is a neat data point for that thesis. I wrote about the broader implications (2) The trillion-dollar scaling bet looks increasingly like…
Comment linking /posts/the-most-expensive-assumption-in-ai/
on “Building a Minimal Transformer for 10-digit Addition”Submitted Is AI Eating the World? as a story · 4 points
HN discussionSection 122 caps at 15% and expires in 150 days without Congress. So I would assume this is a "negotiating position", not a trade regime. I'm more interested to see how the Fed reads it, since tariffs map directly into cost-push shocks that force a dual mandate tradeoff between inflation and employment. Covered this angle recently: https://philippdubach.com/posts/dual-mandate-tensions/
Comment linking /posts/dual-mandate-tensions/
on “Trump raises tariffs to 15% day after Supreme Court ruling”Submitted Is AI Eating the World? as a story · 4 points
HN discussion
