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Quantian’s Newsletter
Personal blog · quantian.substack.comeconomicsbusiness
Quantian’s Newsletter is a personal blog at quantian.substack.com about economics and business. Since 2023, 5 different Hacker News readers have linked it 5 times, most often “Market Prices Are Not Probabilities”. It is still writing: the last post was on 2026-01-06, and you can follow it by feed.
Too few sampled comments (3) to say how often HN recommends it.?
Why HN links it
HN readers link Quantian's Newsletter for writing on prediction market prices and the math behind them, and on applying dimensional analysis to a nuclear yield and order-book price impact.
Summarised by Claude from a sample of 3 HN comments that link here. Each comment is marked recommending, critical or neutral (citing without judging); how this works.
Longer-form pieces unsuitable for Twitter.
Most-linked posts?
- Market Prices Are Not Probabilities3 people · 3 mentions · first linked 2024-10-18
What Hacker News says?
It's worth nothing that it takes less money than you may expect to significantly shift a prediction market's trading price. This article, while its tone aged poorly with the relevant election results, covers the math behind this quite well. https://quantian.substack.com/p/market-prices-are-not-probab...
Comment linking /p/market-prices-are-not-probabilities
on “The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return”Submitted Losers Average Losers as a story · 7 points
HN discussionEven if you assume perfectly spherical rational traders with equal fixed budgets, prediction market prices aren't guaranteed to converge to the average belief: https://quantian.substack.com/p/market-prices-are-not-probab... You cannot really do postprocessing to the market price to get the average belief back out, because the bounds aren't very tight: a market price of 50% could correspond to an average belief anywh…
Comment linking /p/market-prices-are-not-probabilities
on “The death and life of prediction markets at Google”Submitted Market Prices Are Not Probabilities as a story · 2 points
HN discussionhttps://quantian.substack.com/p/from-trinity-to-liquidity is an excellent example of applying this idea to the problem of inferring the yield of a nuclear explosion and price impact of a trade in an order book.
Comment linking /p/from-trinity-to-liquidity
on “Problem Solving with Dimensional Analysis”
