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ResearchAffiliates.com
Company blog · researchaffiliates.com/publications/articleseconomicsbusiness
ResearchAffiliates.com is the company blog at researchaffiliates.com, writing about economics and business. Since 2016, 17 different Hacker News readers have linked it 24 times, most often “Yes it's a bubble, so what?”. No feed was found, so read it on the site itself.
Most-linked posts?
- Yes it's a bubble, so what?3 people · 4 mentions · first linked 2018-04-26
What Hacker News says?
The figure of long-term 7% real returns is accurate assuming a 60-40 stock bond portfolio, averaged over around 100 years of US stock market. This estimate does not include the information about the current over or under valuation of the stock. However, if you start investing now , in 2016, not at some average starting time in the past 100 years, note that the US stock market is over-valued according to the CAPE met…
Comment linking /Production%20content%20library/IWM_Jan_Feb_2012_Expected_Return.pdf
on “Ask HN: What was your “why didn't I start doing this sooner” moment?”Submitted Yes it's a bubble, so what? as a story · 115 points
HN discussionThe book The Missing Risk Premium covers a lot of the evidence. The author give a synopsis here: https://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2013/07/missing-risk-premium... Low volatility investing is based around the observation that low volatility stocks have higher average returns than high volatility stocks. This article is a good summary: https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articl...
Comment linking /en_us/publications/articles/s_2013_jan_making-sense-of-low-volatility-investing.html
on “The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015 [pdf]”Submitted Bitcoin: Magic Internet Money as a story · 37 points
HN discussionThese are nominal returns, real returns are worse. And the returns over 10 years, for example, are quite irregular and can be negative. And over the next 10 years one should expect to get lower-than-average returns because valuation is high currently. https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articl...
Comment linking /en_us/publications/articles/313_year_end_capital_markets_commentary_and_forecast_yesterdays_gone.html
on “The Super-Rich Are Stockpiling Wealth in Black-Box Charities”Submitted Big Market Delusion: Electric Vehicles as a story · 3 points
HN discussionGlad to see a fellow fundamental indexer on HN! As a US based investor, I personally invest in the RAFI US broad market fundamental index (FNDB ETF) which does keep up with the Vanguard US total market over the past 10 years except the bubbly years of 2020/2021 & 2024/2025, even with a higher expense ratio. Last 10 years comparison (VTI vs FNDB): https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&s... In my…
Comment linking /content/dam/ra/publications/pdf/121-rebalancing-and-the-value-effect.pdf
on “Margin debt surges to record high”Submitted Odds of a Hard Landing Are Increasing as a story · 1 points
HN discussionYou don't have to wait until the bottom, but it's obviously better to buy assets when they are "cheap" rather than "expensive". Valuation and long-term future returns seem indeed related historically https://www.oppenheimerfunds.com/private-client-groups/artic... For a more detailed treatment: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/s338.pdf Of course this kind of arguments are not bullet-proof, see for example: http://ww…
Comment linking /en_us/asset-allocation.html
on “In Investing, It’s When You Start and When You Finish (2011)”Submitted History Lessons: How “Transitory” Is Inflation? as a story · 1 points
HN discussionIt's difficult reading articles without any Headings! Data mining is common in finance. Finance PhDs are constantly identifying new "factors" (e.g. value, momentum, price/book) based on historical data that don't pan out as time goes on. See here for some academic research: https://www.researchaffiliates.com/publications/articles/710... Robert Shiller has does extensive research on how psychology impacts real estate…
Comment linking /publications/articles/710-alices-adventures-in-factorland-three-blunders-that-plague-factor-investing
on “Zillow just gave us a look at machine learning's future”Submitted Cryptocurrencies: The Power of Memes as a story · 1 points
HN discussionOn Tesla's viability, stock price and debt, I think there can't be better quote than this: Tesla’s current price is arguably fair if most cars are powered by electricity in 10 years, if most of these cars are made by Tesla, if Tesla can make those cars with sufficient margin and quality control and can service the cars properly, and if Tesla can raise additional capital sufficient to cover a $3 billion annual cash d…
Comment linking /en_us/publications/articles/668-yes-its-a-bubble-so-what.html
on “Tesla needs to sell more expensive Model 3s so the company doesn’t ‘die’”Submitted Revisiting Tesla’s Addition to the S&P 500: What’s the Cost, Before and After? as a story · 1 points
HN discussionReader mode appears to only show the first half of the article. Hardly ideal, but there is a pdf version of the full thing: https://www.researchaffiliates.com/content/dam/ra/documents/...
Comment linking /content/dam/ra/documents/820-bitcoin-magic-internet-money.pdf
on “Bitcoin: Magic Internet Money”Submitted Yes. It's a Bubble. So What? (2018) as a story · 1 points
HN discussionFor all the discussions and/or criticisms about Tesla, I don't think there are any other better quotes than this: Tesla’s current price is arguably fair if most cars are powered by electricity in 10 years, if most of these cars are made by Tesla, if Tesla can make those cars with sufficient margin and quality control and can service the cars properly, and if Tesla can raise additional capital sufficient to cover a $…
Comment linking /en_us/publications/articles/668-yes-its-a-bubble-so-what.html
on “Tesla Doesn’t Burn Fuel, It Burns Cash”Submitted Book Value Is an Incomplete Measure of Firm Size as a story · 1 points
HN discussionThe authors have what looks like the full paper under their own letterhead on their website: https://www.researchaffiliates.com/documents/630%20The%20Fol... Didn't have any problem with sci-hub here, either.
Comment linking /documents/630%20The%20Folly%20of%20Hiring%20Winners%20and%20Firing%20Losers.pdf
on “The Folly of Hiring Winners and Firing Losers”Submitted With Volatility Comes Opportunity as a story · 1 points
HN discussionSenior Software Engineer (Python) Newport Beach, CA (hyrbid)| Full Time https://www.researchaffiliates.com/about-us/careers/software... WHAT WE’RE LOOKING FOR: We seek experienced and versatile Python engineers passionate about creating efficient, lightweight, and robust code. As part of a small team you will collaborate with researchers and other investment professionals to transform ideas into production systems.…
Comment linking /about-us/careers/software-engineer
on “Ask HN: Who is hiring? (May 2026)”Submitted Oh My What’s This Stuff Worth? as a story · 1 points
HN discussionSubmitted What Is Quality? as a story · 1 points
HN discussionSubmitted Buy High and Sell Low with Index Funds as a story · 1 points
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