Top all-time · #962
Scott Sumner
Personal blog · themoneyillusion.comeconomics
Scott Sumner writes TheMoneyIllusion, a personal blog at themoneyillusion.com about economics. Since 2010, 72 different Hacker News readers have linked it 131 times, most often “Clear thinking about taxes”. The last post was in 2024, but the archive is still widely read.
For readers who don't already know this, my new blog is over at Substack:scottsumner.substack.comThis will be my final Money Illusion post. The blog began on February 2, 2009. But the events that led to the blog took place in late 2008. Indeed my life can be divided into two segments, before and aft
Most-linked posts?
- /4 people · 4 mentions · first linked 2010-12-05
- /?p=296923 people · 3 mentions · first linked 2015-06-24
- Clear thinking about taxes2 people · 8 mentions · first linked 2015-06-16
- How costly is Chinese IP theft?2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2018-12-10
- /?p=233142 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2014-03-03
- Understanding Middlebrow2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2021-02-14
- Give Thanks for Progress?2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2019-11-30
- The amazing decline in American poverty2 people · 2 mentions · first linked 2013-10-14
What Hacker News says?
No it isn't. http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=32058
Comment linking /?p=32058
on “Donald Trump is the president-elect of the U.S.”Submitted US unprepared for an electrical grid collapse, but it costs only $300M as a story · 303 points
HN discussionI also think the following take is interesting, and hasn't been mentioned in any of the comments so far (to the extent that I've been able to keep up with them): https://www.themoneyillusion.com/understanding-middlebrow/ The gist of it is: > Any time a powerful middlebrow entity (which wrongly thinks it’s highbrow) evaluates an actual highbrow entity, you will end up with a mixture of resentment and incomprehension.…
Comment linking /understanding-middlebrow/
on “Statement on New York Times Article”Submitted We are the freak show as a story · 60 points
HN discussionThere is no such thing as "fundamentals," value is in the eye of society - so pricing is also in the eye of society. Bitcoin is operating under a great deal of uncertainty about its future prospects/the prospects of blockchain. https://www.themoneyillusion.com/richard-rorty-and-the-effic...
Comment linking /richard-rorty-and-the-efficient-markets-debate/
on “SoftBank unmasked as ‘Nasdaq whale’ that stoked tech rally”Submitted Would You Rather Be Middle Class in 2011 or Rich in 1973? as a story · 31 points
HN discussionWhat are you talking about? I suppose there's technically wiggle room because you said "raise" taxes on the rich (implying that regardless of whatever rich people pay now it should be more). But it's an absolute fiction that rich people don't pay taxes. The top income tax rate is about 43%, and the new GOP tax bill doesn't change that. Did you know the richest 2.7% of all earners pay > 50% of all receipts collected…
Comment linking /?p=15005
on “American Equity”Submitted The marshmallow test as a story · 5 points
HN discussionOn the contrary, there is no logical reason to tax investors/savers. I strongly recommend this article by Scott Sumner, who works through the details carefully. http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=28842 The key point is that taxes on investments create distortions while taxes on consumption don't. It's even worse if you tax different investments differently (e.g., interest vs cap gains, short term vs long term cap ga…
Comment linking /?p=28842
on “U.S. Tech Funding – What’s Going On?”Submitted Picking apart Picketty as a story · 4 points
HN discussionScott Sumner has a great blog post that gets into this (and some other semi related topics): http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=30566
Comment linking /?p=30566
on “My own private basic income”Submitted The odd distribution of high rise construction as a story · 3 points
HN discussion(1) Liquidity always dries up prior to the announcements. If you're a market maker, you don't want to get run over by someone moving the price on new information. (2) It's a myth that raising rates will give the Fed more ammunition. That's like saying you should exercise less now so that if you gain weight in the future you'll be able to make a bigger change in the amount you exercise. (Not the perfect analogy, but…
Comment linking /?p=31361
on “Fed Ends Zero-Rate Era”Submitted Melancholia and the Bay Area as a story · 3 points
HN discussion> I think you’re in over your head on this. If you can't tease out the difference between correlation and causation, I suspect that you are the one in over your head. I have experience in academic economics, you clearly, do not. https://www.themoneyillusion.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/... Guess when Japan's deflation ended?
Comment linking /wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Screen-Shot-2019-10-25-at-12.19.26-PM-1.png
on “Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms”Submitted Feedburner Is Ending as a story · 3 points
HN discussion> It’s not even slightly controversial, so all you jumping on this attack just reveal your actual ignorance on the subject. It's not even slightly controversial that QE causes deflation? That's just laughable, honestly. Look, mainstream economists disagree with you [0]. QE usually occurs in the context of a real shock that induces deflationary pressure, but the fact that QE and deflation sometimes co-occur is correl…
Comment linking /how-strong-is-the-case-for-helicopter-drops/
on “Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms”Submitted How costly is Chinese IP theft? as a story · 3 points
HN discussionThere are so many issues with this comment, it's hard to pin point any exact one. You're right that it's idiotic to describe QE as "deflationary" (don't know where they go that idea) but QE is neither inflationary nor deflationary as either description would be reasoning from a price change [0]. > The fed has effectively destroyed any price discovery on any assets Don't see why this would be the case - price discove…
Comment linking /never-reason-from-a-price-change/
on “Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms”Submitted Is Bitcoin a bubble? as a story · 3 points
HN discussionbut to take one specific example - mortgage cdos in the last decade - what about that market was efficient? The existence of apparent bubbles does not contradict the EMH. Scott Sumner has a great post explaining this: http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=25011 If you believe the boom&bust cycle shows the market to be irrational, what is the EMH-disproving trading strategy? "The market did something I don't like" is no…
Comment linking /?p=25011
on “Why I don't trade stocks and (probably) neither should you”Submitted See the World as a story · 2 points
HN discussionWhilst I do not wish the hell that is American business regulation on anyone, I am at least happy to see some Europeans realizing that America does in fact have more onerous regulation, all things considered, than nice nations like Denmark. Scott Sumner of Bentley University, in Boston, has written on this topic quite a bit. Sumner, in fact, considers Denmark the most free market oriented non-postage-stamp nation on…
Comment linking /?p=22400
on “Why you might not want to incorporate in the USA”Submitted Did the Covid virus originate in Thailand? as a story · 2 points
HN discussionThis is not accurate. See: https://www.themoneyillusion.com/the-actual-ammunition-issue...
Comment linking /the-actual-ammunition-issue/
on “Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus”Submitted Understanding Middlebrow as a story · 2 points
HN discussionAs the person who originally posted this to HN, after reading some of the refutations of Matt Y’s piece (the OP), I’ve come to believe the evidence for zoonotic origin is stronger than Matt Y gives credit for. One short rebuttal I found particularly understandable to a layperson comes from a prominent economist (not a virologist), pointing out a few considerations that Matt’s piece appears to give insufficient crede…
Comment linking /case-closed-2/
on “I’m not convinced by the new lab leak debunking”Submitted Chinese GDP growth returns to trend as a story · 2 points
HN discussionNot an answer to your question but semi-relatedly Scott Sumner had a post this week where he predicts that recessions will be significantly rarer in the future. http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=32350 It's interesting to think about.
Comment linking /?p=32350
on “Airbnb raises $1B at $31B valuation, became profitable in 2016”Submitted Why is supply and demand so confusing? as a story · 2 points
HN discussion
