Top all-time · #14631
Semyon Dukach
Personal blog · semyondukach.blogspot.comeconomicsbusiness
Semyon Dukach writes Semyon, a personal blog at semyondukach.blogspot.com about economics and business. Since 2009, 5 different Hacker News readers have linked it 7 times, most often “The real cause of the financial crisis -- An MIT Blackjack Team perspective”. The last post was in 2015, but the archive is still widely read.
Too few sampled comments (4) to say how often HN recommends it.?
Why HN links it
HN readers link Semyon Dukach's posts on martingale betting, casino strategy and the 2009 financial crisis from an MIT Blackjack Team perspective. Commenters use them as an analogy for risky incentives.
Summarised by Claude from a sample of 4 HN comments that link here. Each comment is marked recommending, critical or neutral (citing without judging); how this works.
Most-linked posts?
- The real cause of the financial crisis -- An MIT Blackjack Team perspective4 people · 6 mentions · first linked 2009-02-10
What Hacker News says?
It's called martingale strategy. The same strategy is embedded into incentives in the wall street compensations. The real cause of the financial crisis -- An MIT Blackjack Team perspective by Semyon Dukach http://semyondukach.blogspot.com/2009/01/real-cause-of-finan...
Comment linking /2009/01/real-cause-of-financial-crisis.html
on “Monte Carlo methods – Why it's a bad idea to go to the casino”Submitted The real cause of the financial crisis -- An MIT Blackjack Team perspective as a story · 26 points
HN discussionWhat Cathie Wood is doing is exactly what Semyon Dukach describes in "The real cause of the financial crisis – An MIT Blackjack Team perspective from 2009" http://semyondukach.blogspot.com/2009/01/real-cause-of-finan... Cathie Wood is playing classical martingale strategy with investor money. Her business is ARK Investment Management, LLC. and fees. It's winning strategy for her, not long time ARKK investors.
Comment linking /2009/01/real-cause-of-financial-crisis.html
on “The rise and fall of Cathie Wood, controversial Wall Street investor”Submitted Semyon Dukach: Non-profit Profiteering as a story · 11 points
HN discussionI liken this story to the mortgage-backed securities mess/scandal/disaster. Read http://semyondukach.blogspot.com/2009/01/real-cause-of-finan... -- a link previously posted here on HN. 99.99% of the nights, this company could get by without a few $M of software to automate these processes and protect it from extreme risks. However, it couldn't survive even a single night of failure. It's like a player in an online p…
Comment linking /2009/01/real-cause-of-financial-crisis.html
on “How one guy with a 20yo telephone did $30m in damages in less than one night.”Submitted The cause of the financial crisis -An MIT Blackjack Team perspective (2009 as a story · 2 points
HN discussionYou and splike both made good arguments. I just want to point out that it's possible to pick out winners better than random quess if they have advantage over others. Case in point: Warren Buffet. He is good investor who has beaten the S&P 500 decade after decade. But he is not beating the market because he makes series of good decisions. He beats the market because he has structured his business so that he has sever…
Comment linking /2009/01/real-cause-of-financial-crisis.html
on “Fund Manager Ab Nicholas Has Been Beating S&P 500 for 40 Years”