Top all-time · #14852
Ted Sanders
Personal blog · tedsanders.com · on HN as tedsandersculturescience
Ted Sanders's personal blog at tedsanders.com covers culture and science. Since 2013, 5 different Hacker News readers have linked it 16 times. No feed was found, so read it on the site itself.
Too few sampled comments (2) to say how often HN recommends it.?
Why HN links it
Linked for an AGI forecasting tool, which lets a reader produce their own estimate of transformative AI timing. HN commenters also discuss battery energy density limits in a separate thread.
Summarised by Claude from a sample of 2 HN comments that link here. Each comment is marked recommending, critical or neutral (citing without judging); how this works.
Welcome to tedsanders.com
What Hacker News says?
https://www.tedsanders.com
Comment linking /
on “Ask HN: Share your personal site”Submitted Why does Google think the slowest animal is the sloth? as a story · 13 points
HN discussionLooks like it's time to add another Moore's Law to the list: https://www.tedsanders.com/moores-law-of-moores-laws/
Comment linking /moores-law-of-moores-laws/
on “Moore's Law for Everything”Submitted What changed in tech from 2010 to 2020? as a story · 2 points
HN discussionRandall Monroe shared a nice series of these last year: https://twitter.com/xkcd/status/1333529967079120896?s=20 "What year did Tom Hanks land on the moon?" "1970" "When did the Simpsons learn to control fire?" "Dec 17, 1989" "Which river did George Washington drown in?" "The Allegheny River" It's got to be tough to train an AI that can generalize to (or at least recognize) questions outside its training set. Unfort…
Comment linking /why-does-google-think-the-slowest-animal-is-the-sloth/
on “When did Neil Armstrong set foot on Mars?”Submitted The Moore's Law of Moore's Laws as a story · 2 points
HN discussionThere are inherent limits on battery energy density.[1] Lithium-ion is nearing the limits of that chemistry. Magnesium-ion could potentially have about 30% more energy density, but so far, nobody can get it to work. Lithium-sulfur may be the next big step. Those actually exist.[2] However, they present a major hazardous waste problem, much worse than lithium-ion batteries.[3] The ultimate limits on energy density ar…
Comment linking /graphs/batteries-over-time
on “Electric cars are no longer held back by crappy, expensive batteries”Submitted The Zipper Merge (2017) as a story · 1 points
HN discussionSo true. It's bizarre how journalists report on IPOs. I imagine it comes from the search for an easy narrative (e.g., "Investors raced to shop for SHOP"), but these narratives always miss the point that a pop indicates underestimated demand, not high demand. Suppose I took Facebook public and sold the company for $10 to my friends, who turned around and sold it for $10 billion. The stock would have experienced a bil…
Comment linking /ipos/
on “Shopify IPO shares soar in trading debut”Submitted Predictions about the Year 2050 as a story · 1 points
HN discussionThe market is so huge that it's worth it even if it takes decades of R&D costing billions a year. Some numbers: ~100M cars are made a year If 10% of those are self driving, and if they have $1,000 in gross margin due to self driving features, that's $10B a year to cover past R&D. Over 20 years this adds up to $200B. Optimistically, if the tech eventually reaches 80% of new cars and $3,000 margin, then we're talking…
Comment linking /on-self-driving-cars/
on “A Waymo One Rider’s Experiences Highlight Autonomous Rideshare’s Shortcomings”Submitted A list of facts about Google as a story · 1 points
HN discussionThere's so much good content out on the internet, and sadly, we are wildly ignorant of almost all of it. Discovery is still such a hard problem. Here's a list of the blogs, podcasts, and websites that I read. Links available at http://www.tedsanders.com/my-information-diet/ Blogs Economics blogs: •Marginal Revolution, The Money Illusion, The Incidental Economist, The Growth Economics Blog, Conversable Economist, Ove…
Comment linking /my-information-diet/
on “Ask HN: What else do you read as regularly as Hacker News?”Submitted Why do journalists get IPOs so wrong? as a story · 1 points
HN discussionUsing the tool referenced in the paper, my own estimate came to around 25% https://www.tedsanders.com/agi-forecaster/
Comment linking /agi-forecaster/
on “Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely”Submitted Why the media is ignoring Nate Silver by praising Nate Silver as a story · 1 points
HN discussion