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Timeline Topography Tales
Personal blog · titotal.substack.comscienceai
Timeline Topography Tales is a personal blog at titotal.substack.com about science and ai. Since 2025, 6 different Hacker News readers have linked it 7 times, most often “A deep critique of AI 2027's bad timeline models”. It is still writing: the last post was on 2026-10-27, and you can follow it by feed.
Too few sampled comments (3) to say how often HN recommends it.?
Why HN links it
A physicist's Substack with critiques of AI 2027's timeline forecasting models, arguing that such toy models should not be treated as serious forecasts, plus pieces on the hidden costs of AI coding.
Summarised by Claude from a sample of 3 HN comments that link here. Each comment is marked recommending, critical or neutral (citing without judging); how this works.
I'm a computational physicist here to critique poor reasoning in the world around me.
Most-linked posts?
- A deep critique of AI 2027's bad timeline models4 people · 4 mentions · first linked 2025-06-21
What Hacker News says?
I agree that we have been able to automate a lot of jobs, but it's not like intellectual jobs have completely replaced physical labor. Electricians, phlebotomists, linemen, firefighters, caregivers, etc, etc, are jobs that current AI approaches don't even scratch. I mean, Boston dynamics has barely been able to get a robot to walk . So no, we don't need to retrain them to be AI engineers if we have an active shortag…
Comment linking /p/slopworld-2035-the-dangers-of-mediocre
on “The hidden cost of AI coding”Submitted A deep critique of AI 2027's bad timeline models as a story · 2 points
HN discussionAs far as I can tell, the author of the critique specifically avoids espousing a timeline of his own. Indeed, he dislikes how these sorts of timeline models are used in general: > I’m not against people making shoddy toy models, and I think they can be a useful intellectual exercise. I’m not against people sketching out hypothetical sci-fi short stories, I’ve done that myself. I am against people treating shoddy toy…
Comment linking /p/ai-is-not-taking-over-material-science
on “A deep critique of AI 2027's bad timeline models”Submitted A deep critique of AI 2027's bad timeline models as a story · 2 points
HN discussion> One of the AI 2027 authors joked to me in the comments on a recent article that “you may not like it but it's what peak AI forecasting performance looks like”. Well, I don’t like it, and if this truly is “peak forecasting”, then perhaps forecasting should not be taken very seriously. Maybe this is because I am a physicist, not a Rationalist. In my world, you generally want models to have strong conceptual justific…
Comment linking /p/a-deep-critique-of-ai-2027s-bad-timeline
on “A deep critique of AI2027s bad timeline models”Submitted A deep critique of AI 2027's bad timeline models as a story · 2 points
HN discussion