Top all-time · #10208
Maarten Steinbuch
Personal blog · maartensteinbuch.comscienceeconomics
Maarten Steinbuch writes Steinbuch, a personal blog at maartensteinbuch.com about science and economics. Since 2020, 8 different Hacker News readers have linked it 8 times. It is still writing: the last post was on 2026-04-02, and you can follow it by feed.
Too few sampled comments (8) to say how often HN recommends it.?
Why HN links it
HN readers cite Maarten Steinbuch's posts as data sources: EV battery lifetime from real-world Tesla Model S mileage, and photovoltaic growth versus IEA solar forecasts. Comments only quote or link them.
Summarised by Claude from a sample of 8 HN comments that link here. Each comment is marked recommending, critical or neutral (citing without judging); how this works.
Most-linked posts?
- /2017/06/12/photovoltaic-growth-reality-versus-projections-of-the-international-energy-agency/5 people · 5 mentions · first linked 2020-10-13
- /2015/01/24/tesla-model-s-battery-degradation-data/3 people · 3 mentions · first linked 2020-07-05
What Hacker News says?
It is unlikely that the battery would wear out faster than other key components in an EV or hybrid. There is plenty of real world data from tesla model S owners showing that the batteries easily last more than 200k miles, which is about how long cars in the US last before getting scrapped. https://maartensteinbuch.com/2015/01/24/tesla-model-s-batter... The same is more or less true for Priuses, their batteries last…
Comment linking /2015/01/24/tesla-model-s-battery-degradation-data/
on “In Mahle's Contact-Free Electric Motor, Power Reaches the Rotor Wirelessly”Yeah, we're in a weird set of times. The rate at which electricity costs are decreasing from solar is pretty damn staggering. So much so that government estimates have been laughably wrong for decades now (they consistently over-estimate future costs and under-estimate utilization), without much sign of change (ex: https://maartensteinbuch.com/2017/06/12/photovoltaic-growth-... ) Which doesn't in any way change the…
Comment linking /2017/06/12/photovoltaic-growth-reality-versus-projections-of-the-international-energy-agency/
on “Frugal Computing (2021)”The IEA didn't see it coming https://maartensteinbuch.com/2017/06/12/photovoltaic-growth-...
Comment linking /2017/06/12/photovoltaic-growth-reality-versus-projections-of-the-international-energy-agency/
on “Renewable Energy Is Suddenly Startlingly Cheap”> But I still always do wonder how well this is accounted for with battery tech. https://maartensteinbuch.com/2015/01/24/tesla-model-s-batter...
Comment linking /2015/01/24/tesla-model-s-battery-degradation-data/
on “Tesla’s SA big battery just got 50% bigger after goals thanks to Autobidder”Batteries don’t turn into garbage when you look real life data: https://maartensteinbuch.com/2015/01/24/tesla-model-s-batter... Quote: On average the batteries have 91% remaining at 270.000 km (170,000 miles). If the linear behavior would continue, then the ‘lifetime’ (still 80% capacity left) can be calculated as follows: 91-80 = 11% times 50.000 km = 550.000 km, plus 270.000 km, gives 820.000 km (510,000 miles)! N…
Comment linking /2015/01/24/tesla-model-s-battery-degradation-data/
on “Toyota’s Chief Says Electric Vehicles Are Overhyped (2020)”> Why are IEA forecasts spurious? While I don't agree with the post you're replying to, the IEA has a long history of terrible predictions with renewable energy. Not sure if they've improved recently, but for the better part of two decades, they predicted negligible growth in the solar market, even after being contradicted every single year: https://maartensteinbuch.com/2017/06/12/photovoltaic-growth-...
Comment linking /2017/06/12/photovoltaic-growth-reality-versus-projections-of-the-international-energy-agency/
on “War and subsidies have turbocharged the green transition”> This year it omits the “current policies scenario” (CPS), which usually “provides a baseline…by outlining a future in which no new policies are added to those already in place”. This is because “[i]t is difficult to imagine this ‘business as-usual’ approach prevailing in today’s circumstances”. I guess that’s one way to say “our predictions did not even match current policies at all and the model was too complex a…
Comment linking /2017/06/12/photovoltaic-growth-reality-versus-projections-of-the-international-energy-agency/
on “Solar is now ‘cheapest electricity in history’”> If you've already got the electricity for electrolysis, would it not be more efficient and mechanically simpler to store it in a battery and power an electric motor? Yes, if you actually have the batteries. Between around 2014-2024, the common talking point was "we're not making enough batteries", and the way the discussions went it felt like the internal models of people saying this had the same future projection…
Comment linking /2017/06/12/photovoltaic-growth-reality-versus-projections-of-the-international-energy-agency/
on “The Modern Toyota That Lost 65% of Its Value in One Year”
